Beyond global warming: where on the Earth are we going?

Date: August 26, 2004
Time: 8:00-9:00
Room: Folkets Hus, room number 307

The world faces environmental threats from many directions, but the interrelationship between these threats is often ignored. A number of issues have been highlighted, such as global warming, the decline in global fish stocks and coral reef stress. What does the future hold? What surprises are in store? Will extreme weather events become more frequent? Where are the ‘Achilles’ heels’ of the planet and how can we avoid damaging them?

Paul Crutzen, Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Germany
Atmospheric chemistry in the Anthropocene. Paul Crutzen won his Nobel Prize in Chemistry for critical work on the ozone layer. The story of the ozone hole was a story of a near miss - had we used bromine instead of chlorine we would now have a massive ozone hole across the entire globe. What other close calls are waiting around the corner?

Professor John Schellnhuber, Tyndall Centre, UK
Where are planet Earth’s "vital organs" and how healthy are they? The Earth is sometimes compared to a human body. Recently Earth System scientists have come to realise that the planet also has “vital organs” that if stressed could cause changes in the health of the entire planet. Each point is like an Achilles' heel which, once triggered, could bring about large-scale, abrupt and irreversible changes (including extreme events such as drought, floods and storms). A world map of "Achilles' heels" will be shown and a strong case made for an aggressive new R&D programme analogous to NASA's asteroid spotting activity.

Dr Will Steffen, Chief Scientist, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme – Chairman
How stable is planet Earth? The past 50 years have seen an unprecedented increase in human activities around the globe. A series of charts show the enormity of this change and the fundamental accumulative impact of these activities on the global environment. Although it is clear that this path is unsustainable, what does this really mean for the functioning of the planet as a whole? How far can we push the Earth System before critical thresholds are reached and the Earth begins to change beyond recognition?

Professor Katherine Richardson, Aarhus University, Denmark
Oceans of change
Increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in seawater, making the oceans more acidic. This means that, by 2065, there are likely to be virtually no regions in the oceans where coral reefs can be expected to thrive. Likewise, changes in the ocean currents brought about by climate change can be predicted to drastically alter the distribution of fish in the world’s oceans. A proper understanding of how nature functions in the oceans and of how the oceans function in the maintenance of the earth system is vital for predicting the effects of global change. It follows that an understanding of these changes is therefore also indispensable when considering human responses to changes in the earth's environment.

The Plenary Session is held 26 August at 09:30-12:30, Venue: Norra Latin room 361.